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Initiation Report | Construction
September 14, 2023
Estithmar Holding QPSC
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    2.16
  • Target Price
    2.64

Capitalizing on growth opportunities in Qatar and internationally in selected sectors, ini...

• We view Estithmar Holding well positioned to capitalize on the growth of Qatar’s non-oil economy, with ...

Initiation Report | Petrochemicals
July 05, 2018
Boubyan Petrochemical
  • Currency
    KWD
  • Last Closing Price
    867
  • Target Price
    1155

Boubyan Petrochemical Company Initiation (Buy, TP KWD fils 1,155/share, +33% upside) - A mixed bag of growth; initiate with Buy

 Initiate with Buy at SoTP-based TP of KWD fils 1,155 ~ 33% upside.  Petchem player Equate, Boubyan’s primary investment (74% of SoTP), contributes 53% of the group’s recurring FY 18-21e EPS CAGR on higher petchem prices and new MEG capacity (+30% in FY 19e) in the US.  Boubyan’s diversification strategy into education and healthcare (19% of SoTP), provides attractive long-term returns, in our view, and caters for 27% of the group’s FY 18-21e EPS CAGR.  Further potential impairments cloud earnings visibility (KWD 51m impaired in FY 16-18 – c.11% of market cap), although recurring earnings growth has been steady (FY 15-18A EPS CAGR of 5%).

Earning Review
February 22, 2022
Petrochemicals

Boubyan Petrochemical Company (Hold, TP KWd 950/share) - Q3 22A net income is up 10% y/y at KWD 2.5m, but misses our estimate by 16%. Maintain Hold

• BPCC reported Q3 22A net income of KWD 2.5m (+10% y/y, -11% q/q), 16% below our expectations (ACe: KWD 3m) • The y/y profit increase was driven by improved operating performance from subsidiaries (mainly AlKout), while q/q, lower investment income led to profit decline. • BPCC is expected to report strong FY 22e EPS growth (+104% y/y) supported by a rebound in Equate’s net income (+210% y/y) on higher petchem prices this year. The stock is up 12% YtD, capturing most of the upside, in our view. Equate’s dividend income will be reflected in the fourth quarter of BPCC. • M&A activity is likely to slow down in the MT, in our view, given minimum KWD 60 fils DPS guidance till FY 24e or 6.4% DY. Maintain Hold.

Company Report | Petrochemicals
June 13, 2022
Boubyan Petrochemical
  • Currency
    KWD
  • Last Closing Price
    1056
  • Target Price
    1200

Boubyan Petrochemical Company (Buy, TP KWD 1.2/share) - Upgrade to Buy as B/S improves on robust cash flow

• BPCC FY22 net income more than doubled y/y to KWD 38.8m on strong dividend income from Equate (KWD 30.2m vs. 9.7m last year) and a 13% y/y increase in core investment income. • BPCC recently sold a GBK stake for KWD 51.2m and we expect this will lead to a 35% y/y reduction in net debt to KWD 117m (adding 120 fils/share to equity value) in FY 23e. BPCC has also early settled KWD 70m of loans. • Core investments (ex-Equate) continue to improve, supported by reopening. But, Equate’s profit is under pressure from lower MEG prices. • We upgrade to Buy at KWD 1.2/share (revised by +26%). The stock trades at 14x FY 23e P/E and provides a minimum DY of 5.8% FY22-24e.

Earning Review
March 15, 2023
Petrochemicals

Boubyan Petrochemical Company (Buy, TP KWD 1.0/share) - Q3 net income rises 58% y/y to KWD 4m (-39% q/q); in-line with estimates

• BPC reported Q3 22/23A net income of KWD 4m (+58% y/y, -39% q/q), in-line with our estimates. • The q/q net income decline was driven by lower dividends from Equate (-71% q/q). Y/y profit increase was supported by a 700bps improvement in gross margin, despite flat revenues. • BPC’s FY 22/23e net income is expected to decline by 28% y/y on a 45% y/y decline in dividends from Equate (Equate FY 22 net income at USD 611m, -45% y/y). • The stock trades at 12x FY 24e P/E and provides a minimum DY of 7.7% till FY 24e. Maintain Buy at SotP based TP of KWD 1/share.

Earning Review
November 23, 2022
Petrochemicals

Boubyan Petrochemical Company (Buy, TP KWD 1.0/share) - Q2 net income misses estimates by 22% on margin pressure

• BPCC reported Q2 22/23 net income of KWD 6.6m (2.3x y/y, -35% q/q), 22% below our estimates (ACe: KWD 8.4m). • The q/q net income decline was driven by sequential decline in operating profits from subsidiaries (Al Kout and EDU). Y/y profit increase was supported by KWD 5.6m interim dividend by Equate. • Equate is expected to witness significant pressure in H2e earning given -25% h/h MEG prices (USD 460/t) and this will impact dividends and earnings for BPCC in the next two quarters. • The stock trades at 15.4x FY 23e P/E and provides a minimum DY of 7.3% till FY 24e. Maintain Buy as our SotP based TP of KWD 1/share provides 22% upside despite a 17% cut, as we reduce Equate’s FVe by 15% on MEG price downtick.

Earning Review
August 23, 2022
Petrochemicals

Boubyan Petrochemical Company (Buy, TP KWD 1.2/share) - Q1 net income beats estimates by 15% on strong performance from Al-Kout

• BPCC reported Q1 22/23 net income of KWD 10.1m (3.6x y/y, -67% q/q), 15% above our estimates (ACe: KWD 8.8m). • The y/y net income increase by driven by higher operating profits from subsidiaries (mainly Al Kout) and KWD 6.3m interim dividend by Equate. Q/q profit decline was a function of seasonality (BPCC recorded full dividend from Equate in Q4 last year). • Core investments (ex-Equate) continue to improve for BPCC as Al Kout delivered strong results in the quarter (NI: +165% y/y and +75% q/q) and EDU net income increased by 7% y/y and 20% q/q. • The stock trades at 12.7x FY 23e P/E and provides a minimum DY of 6.4% till FY24e. Maintain Buy but highlight near term pressure on Equate’s earnings on MEG price downtick.

Initiation Report | Healthcare Providers & Pharmaceuticals
November 22, 2020
Amanat Holdings
  • Currency
    AED
  • Last Closing Price
    0.8
  • Target Price
    1.05

Proxy play on GCC soft infrastructure. Initiate with Buy.

Company Report | Banks
November 16, 2022
CAPITAL BANK OF JORDAN
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    2.43
  • Target Price
    3.9

Capital Bank of Jordan - Dynamic balance sheet activity boosting EPS

Company Report | Banks
April 03, 2023
CAPITAL BANK OF JORDAN
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    2.36
  • Target Price
    4.1

EPS advances by 10%, despite significantly improved provision buffers and higher NoS

Operating profit surged by 169% y/y in Q4 22, taking the FY growth to 43%, aided by strong B/S activity, NIM expansion, despite OpEx growth in Q4. • FY 22 EPS missed by 4% on CoR (100bps), as it bolsters provision buffers, with stage 1 coverage doubling to 1.2%, stage 2 at 7.5%, and stage 3 at 49%. • We raise our TP by 5% to JOD 4.1 as we lift our NIM projections by 7bps, partly negated by higher OpEx and slightly higher CoR. The stock remains compelling at 1x BV and P/E 24e of 5.2x, while offering an EPS CAGR (FY 23e-27e) of 19.5% and RoE of 15.8% in FY23e and 18.8% in FY24e.

Company Report | Banks
May 31, 2023
CAPITAL BANK OF JORDAN
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    2.19
  • Target Price
    4

Firing on all cylinders. We expect high double-digit EPS CAGR and RoE. Stock still below BV. Reiterate Buy.

• We increase our EPS estimates by 1-4% following the stronger operating profit in Q1 (+68% y/y in Q1). B/S activity remains robust, JAWs remain highly positive, while NIM compressed slightly due to a negative net ALM gap (c7% of assets < 12 months), with CoR ahead of expectations and guidance. • The bank is well insulated against lower policy rates as of FY24/25e, with a neutral ALM position (< 12 months). We expect an EPS CAGR FY22-27e of 17%. • The stock remains compelling at 0.9x BV and P/E 24e of 4.4x, while offering a RoE of 16.7% in FY23e and 18.4% in FY24e (vs. a RoE target of > 14%)

Initiation Report | Banks
August 21, 2022
CAPITAL BANK OF JORDAN
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    2.47
  • Target Price
    3.9

CAPITAL BANK OF JORDAN - We initiate on the fast-growing bank backed by PIF with a BUY on several growth levers

Initiation Report | Banks
May 30, 2022
Gulf Finance House
  • Currency
    USD
  • Last Closing Price
    0.31
  • Target Price
    0.42

GFH – More resilient return profile - Improving risk profile and enhanced capital base

Company Report | Banks
November 16, 2022
Gulf Finance House
  • Currency
    USD
  • Last Closing Price
    0.26
  • Target Price
    0.41

GFH Financial Group - Double digit EPS growth in 9M, lifting RoE to almost 10%

Company Report | Banks
March 27, 2023
Gulf Finance House
  • Currency
    USD
  • Last Closing Price
    0.25
  • Target Price
    0.37

GFH Financial Group - Balance sheet has de-risked further with RWAs down 12% y/y and higher provision buffers

Company Report | Banks
June 11, 2023
Gulf Finance House
  • Currency
    USD
  • Last Closing Price
    0.26
  • Target Price
    0.37

GFH Financial Group - On track to increase EPS by double digits in FY23e after a solid start to the year

Earning Review
November 09, 2022
Consumer discretionary

EPS disappoint (-29% y/y, -30% vs. street) on weak sales and margins.

Initiation Report | Consumer discretionary
September 01, 2022
Al-Hassan Ghazi Ibrahim Shaker Company
  • Currency
    SAR
  • Last Closing Price
    19.86
  • Target Price
    27

SHAKER AB (Buy, SAR 27) Initiation of Coverage – Direct play on increased localized production, energy efficiency and giga projects. We initiate with a Buy.

Initiation Report | Insurance
June 20, 2019
Saudi Re
  • Currency
    SAR
  • Last Closing Price
    7.37
  • Target Price
    10.3

Saudi Re - Brightening outlook for KSA’s only reinsurer

Company Report | Insurance
April 25, 2017
Qatar Insurance Company
  • Currency
    QAR
  • Last Closing Price
    70.7
  • Target Price
    91.02

Qatar Insurance Company – Growth story continues, but claims and commissions are rising, with underwriting profits under pressure

Company Report | Insurance
January 24, 2018
Qatar Insurance Company
  • Currency
    QAR
  • Last Closing Price
    53.5
  • Target Price
    91.02

Qatar Insurance Company (Hold, TP QAR 55.6, +4.0% upside): Slight improvement in Q4, but underwriting profits remains limited. High growth continues.

Company Report | Insurance
March 18, 2018
Qatar Insurance Company
  • Currency
    QAR
  • Last Closing Price
    35
  • Target Price
    91.02

Qatar Insurance Company: Upgrade to Buy on compelling valuation and earnings rebound

Company Report | Insurance
April 22, 2018
Qatar Insurance Company
  • Currency
    QAR
  • Last Closing Price
    37.46
  • Target Price
    91.02

Qatar Insurance Company: Strong recovery play on dislocated valuation – reiterate Core Buy

Company Report | Insurance
April 26, 2018
Qatar Insurance Company
  • Currency
    QAR
  • Last Closing Price
    36.31
  • Target Price
    91.02

Qatar Insurance Company: Recovery underway with improved profitability and strong top line growth

Company Report | Insurance
May 18, 2020
Qatar Insurance Company
  • Currency
    QAR
  • Last Closing Price
    2.02
  • Target Price
    2.2

Qatar Insurance Company - Pressure on underwriting margins and large investment losses in Q1

Initiation Report | Banks
April 03, 2023
Noor Financial Investment Co KSC
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    146
  • Target Price
    188

Noor Financial Investment Co KSC - Company trades at 30% below adj. NAV

Company Report | Industrials
May 30, 2023
Middle East Paper Co.
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    33.8
  • Target Price
    32

Modest loss in Q1 on lower prices and higher cash costs. Despite NT challenges, we see significant opportunities.

Company Report | Industrial
April 10, 2023
Middle East Paper Co.
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    0
  • Target Price
    34.5

Middle East Paper Co - Strong beneficiary of ambitious growth plans and Saudi’s Vision 2030 we initiate with a Hold on NT price pressure

Earning Review
April 01, 2022
Industrials

INTEGRAT KK Q4 21A: Solid Q4 net profit supported a 10fils DPS for FY 21A (2.5% DY). We expect P&L recovery in FY 22e.

Company Report | Industrials
November 12, 2021
Integrated Holding Company
  • Currency
    KWd
  • Last Closing Price
    373
  • Target Price
    576.33

INTEGRAT KK Q3 21A: The easing of travel restrictions in Kuwait should support the project activity in Q4e, and more so in Q1 22e.

Company Report | Industrials
August 13, 2021
Integrated Holding Company
  • Currency
    KWd
  • Last Closing Price
    370
  • Target Price
    576.33

INTEGRAT KK Q2 21A: Flat q/q performance in Q2 pending recovery in FY 22e. Maintain Buy.

Earning Review
May 20, 2021
Industrials

INTEGRAT KK Q1 21A: Equipment fleet on stand-by pending market re-opening. Maintain Buy and KWd 517 TP.

Company Report | Real Estate
March 28, 2021
Integrated Holding Company
  • Currency
    KWd
  • Last Closing Price
    402
  • Target Price
    517.4

INTEGRAT KK (Buy, KWd 517): Gradual recovery in equipment utilization to continue in FY 21e. Maintain Buy and raise TP to KWd 517

Company Report | Diversified Financials
November 04, 2021
Dubai Financial Market
  • Currency
    AED
  • Last Closing Price
    1.56
  • Target Price
    2

Dubai Financial Market: Best play on Dubai’s privatization plans

Company Report | Diversified Financials
November 10, 2020
Dubai Financial Market
  • Currency
    AED
  • Last Closing Price
    0.85
  • Target Price
    0.8

Dubai Financial Market: Volatility supported volumes, but already priced in

Earning Review
November 16, 2022
Consumer staples

ALEID Q3 22A results

Initiation Report | Consumer staples
August 03, 2022
AL-EID FOOD KSC
  • Currency
  • Last Closing Price
    254
  • Target Price
    313

Aleid Foods Initiation of coverage

Earning Review
November 24, 2022
Real Estate

Near-term asset disposals should unlock decent upside for Alimtiaz. Maintain Buy.

Company Report | Real Estate
September 08, 2022
ALIMTIAZ INVESTMENT GROUP
  • Currency
    KWD
  • Last Closing Price
    91.9
  • Target Price
    179.96

Well-provisioned balance sheet in H1 holds upside at P/tBV of 0.81x. DY likely to remain above 6% in FY 22e.

Company Report | Real Estate
May 23, 2022
ALIMTIAZ INVESTMENT GROUP
  • Currency
    KWD
  • Last Closing Price
    112
  • Target Price
    179.96

Sustained growth in profit from continuing operations in Q1 22A.

Earning Review
February 17, 2022
Real Estate

Solid overall portfolio recovery in 2021 produced a 9fils DPS for FY 21A, implying 7% DY.

Earning Review
November 12, 2021
Real Estate

ALIMTIAZ INVESTMENT GROUP - NOI from subsidiaries up 18% y/y in Q3, but net investment losses pressure EPS

Initiation Report | Real Estate
September 27, 2021
ALIMTIAZ INVESTMENT GROUP
  • Currency
    KWD
  • Last Closing Price
    128
  • Target Price
    194

ALIMTIAZ INVESTMENT GROUP - We initiate with BUY and KWd 194 TP